To Thine Own Self Be True

The title of this particular blog is one of my wife's favorite sayings.  It certainly applies to poker.  If you're not honest with yourself you will miss many opportunities to improve your game.  We all make mistakes.  Are they random or do they constitute a pattern or a trend?  If there is a pattern or a trend it must be recognized, acknowledged, admitted, then action taken to change the trend or pattern.  One of my favorite sayings also applies here:  "Being ignorant is not so much a shame as being unwilling to learn"--Benjamin Franklin.  If I am not honest with myself then I am willfully remaining ignorant about my shortcomings.  Again, this philosophy applies directly to poker.

In November of last year my cards were running really well.  I won or placed in several tournaments.  Then I placed second in the $20K Guarantee at the Beau the first weekend of December.  Notice I said the cards were running really well for me?  I didn't say I was playing particularly well.  I wasn't!!  And I knew it.  Obviously I was playing reasonably well or the results wouldn't have been so good but I knew I wasn't playing so well as to deserve my results.  My game was in need of some improvements.  If I hadn't been honest with myself by recognizing and admitting that my good results were largely due to some good luck rather than my brilliance, then I would have settled into a pattern of substandard play that could have haunted me for months.

My string of good luck ran out on me for the rest of December and so far this month and my results were what would be expected--not so good.  However, the results are, again, deceiving.  My game is a lot better now.  I corrected some things, improved in a couple of areas, and made a major change in style.  I truly believe my game is the strongest it has ever been.  It seems strange to say this since my ultimate results certainly don't reflect any drastic improvement in my game.  In fact, based strictly on results, my game was better in November than it is now.  But I know better because I recognized in November that my game was in dire need of repair despite indications to the contrary based on results.  I have made adjustments accordingly and my results will reflect my improvements over time.

Just to be clear, if your results are poor over a long stretch then your game is in dire need of improvement.  Luck can only be blamed for a short while.  I've heard people talk about "a bad year".  If you've had "a bad year", it's your game.  Have no doubt.  However, short term results can be deceiving.  A run of good luck can easily be mistaken for better play and, conversely, a run of bad luck can be mistaken for a deterioration in you game.  You have to recognize the difference, admit it to yourself (To Thine Own Self Be True) and act in accordance with your honest assessment of the state of your game.

Missing Poker Player

One of my poker buddies is missing.  Yes, I happen to know his name (first and last), from which city he hails, and even his college football allegiance.  I won't call his name here for his own privacy.  I know he reads this blog from time to time and maybe he'll comment and let me (us?) know what's going on.

I've talked to several of our mutual poker acquaintances and they don't know what happened to him either.  They all know the same thing I know.........we haven't seen him for quite a while and he was one of the regulars at my home casino.

My buddy's disappearance got me to thinking.........we poker players really don't know a whole lot about each other in general.  I know a lot of poker players by their first name only.  No idea what their last name is, where they live, or anything about their lives.  I call them my "poker buddies" but that's not quite true.  I never see any of these guys anywhere other than a poker room.  Some of them I play against on a regular basis.  Several times a week.  But I don't really know them.  And, conversely, they don't really know me either.

One of our "poker buddies" was murdered a couple of years ago.  I only knew Jake by his first name, his card cover (a miniature Tobasco bottle) and the unique hat he wore.  I also knew some of his poker tendencies.  He was a really nice guy.  I enjoyed being at the same table with him.  I didn't go to his funeral.  Not sure if any of us did.  Yet I refer to him as one of my "poker buddies".

As I said, I know a lot of poker players by their first name only.  I really know almost nothing else about them other than their poker tendencies.  Is he married?  Any children?  Grandchildren?  Retired?  What is his/her profession?  Hobbies?  Religious beliefs?  Political leanings?  Aspirations and dreams?  Regrets?  What do I know about most of them?  The truth is I know almost nothing about them and they know about the same about me.

Most of these guys/gals that I know from playing poker seem to be really nice people.  Sure, there are a couple of jerks in the bunch but, for the most part, I enjoy being around my "poker buddies".  A lot of them have a pretty good sense of humor and most of them are polite gentlemen/ladies.

Why are we poker players so non-social?  I have a theory.  (Mind you, it's just a theory......I'm not claiming that I'm right.)  Maybe it's because poker is such an individual sport.  At the poker table it's every man/woman for himself/herself.  We compete AGAINST each other.  Most of the time we spend together is in an adversarial role.  I would like some comments on this line of thought.

In any case, I hope my missing poker buddy is OK and he turns up soon.

See you at the tables.
  

Cause, Effect, or just plain Superstition?

I'm not a superstitious person.  I don't believe in rushes.  I personally have no doubt that the card distribution is as random as possible and, therefore, the cards that came last hand or in the last hour either to me or to the board have absolutely nothing to do with what is coming next.

Just because I'm not superstitious that doesn't mean that I'm blind to the fact that some of my opponents are superstitious.  For instance, I take into account that other people believe in rushes.....both their own and mine.....and sometimes adjust my play accordingly.

Throughout history superstitions have been borne out of a failure to understand cause and effect.  Did the solar eclipse really cause the crops to fail that year?  Said another way, did the solar eclipse CAUSE the EFFECT of crop failure?  Was the "Sun God" really hiding his face out of shame for whatever happened to be going on at that time?  Said another way, did the shameful actions of mere mortals CAUSE the EFFECT of the solar eclipse?  We, of course, now know better but whole civilizations altered their lives based on some of these superstitions.

Sometimes we confuse cause and effect with superstition.

At other times we confuse the cause with the effect.  This all too common phenomenon reveals itself often in the evaluation of statistics.  Statistic:  Poor families have a higher divorce rate.  Cause/effect or effect/cause?  Statistic:  Country music fans are more politically and socially conservative than fans of rap.  Cause/effect or effect/cause?  Statistic:  Unemployed people generally have lower self-esteem than gainfully employed people.  Cause/effect or effect/cause?

Sometimes we are certain of the effect but the cause is up for discussion.  There are unlimited examples of this.  A quick one:  Sports cars are involved in higher rates of high speed accidents.  Is that because sports cars run faster or because younger and more aggressive people tend to own and drive sports cars?  Here we know the effect but which is the cause?

I have been keeping records of my poker playing exploits for quite a number of years now.  I just yesterday noticed a trend.  I won't tell you what trend I've identified because I don't want you to alter your play against me as a result.  The trend exhibits itself in every year I have recorded with only one exception.  Is this a statistical anomaly?  Would altering my play be tantamount to being superstitious?  The old saying is that "statistics don't lie" but another famous quote is "There are lies, damned lies and statistics".  How much creed should I put into this definite trend?  Should I alter my play as a result of this revelation or not?  I am not entirely sure of the answers but have learned one thing from this exercise:   Keeping records is a valuable tool in determining trends and the more data points the better.

Maybe solar eclipses really DO cause crop failures after all!!

See you at the tables.

Things Just Happen

The other day at the Million Dollar Heater at the Beau Rivage I played in three tournaments.  Those of you who play tournament poker know this story isn't going to turn out well.  If you're playing in three tournaments in one day you probably didn't do too well in the first two.

The first tournament of this particular day was the noon tournament.  I had lasted a couple of hours when I got into a pretty big hand.  I won't bother you with the particulars but I got all in after the flop against another guy.  I was in the lead and the only realistic way he had to catch up was to catch either a Queen or a Seven on the turn or the river to make his straight.  Well, you know the rest of the story....he caught a Queen on the river and put me out of the tournament.  It just happens.

From the noon tournament I moved on over to the STT tables and entered an STT.  I played pretty tight and had roughly starting chips at either the third or fourth blind level.  Again, I won't bother you with the details but I got all in after the flop against another guy.  I was in the lead and the only realistic way he had to catch up was to catch either a Queen or a Seven on the turn or the river to make his straight.  Guess what......you know the rest of the story again..........he caught a Queen on the river and put me out of the tournament.  Not only does it just happen but it just happened again.

Then I entered the 4pm tournament.  A couple of hours into the tournament I moved all in after the flop on a semi-bluff and found myself behind and needing either a Queen or a Seven on either the turn or river to survive.  Neither card came and I was out of the tournament.  Apparently, "things just happen" didn't apply to me when I needed it.  I guess sometimes things just don't happen.

All we can hope for is to get our money in good.  After that what happens happens and that's all there is to it.

See you at the tables.

Frame of Mind

Back in May I wrote a blog entitled "Bad Runs".  In that blog I described how my game had basically gone to pot.  As I said in the blog, it all started with some bad luck and developed into a mental attitude of scared money.  The "bad run" had gotten into my head.

I said back in May that I "won't be traveling to any more series and I won't be making the trek to Vegas this summer unless and until I turn my game around.  I'll be playing the Friday and Saturday tournaments at the Beau until I get my bearings".

I did exactly what I said I was going to do.  I've been strictly playing the poker room tournaments at the Beau with the lone exception of playing a couple of tournaments at the IP during their WSOP circuit event.  As expected my initial results were nothing to write home about (or to write in a blog about).  However, I started to turn things around in July.  Just as in the original blog I declined to "bore you with specific bad beat stories" I won't now bore you with the details of my ever growing good run.  Let's just say that my success rate has improved dramatically and continues to improve every week.  Consequently I'm about to jump back into the saddle of circuit poker.

I believe I already knew it but my "bad run" followed by my turning my game around has enforced my belief that poker is mostly a matter of frame of mind.  During my bad run I became convinced that nothing I did was going to work out well.  Now I'm convinced that I have a chance to win any tournament I enter.

Henry Ford once said "Whether you think you can or think you can't, you're right".  Old Henry's wisdom encapsulates my earlier struggles and my recent resurgence.

Wish me luck.

See you at the tables.

Cupid

And now for a human interest story with absolutely no moral whatsoever.  It's just interesting.

The other day at the Gulf Coast Poker Championship at the Beau I was approached by a complete stranger during one of the breaks.  He said he was certain I didn't remember him but he had a story to tell me.  We stepped to the side out of the crowd and the following is his story:

"About four years ago I was playing in a tournament here at the Beau at the same table with you.  We were getting fairly deep in the tournament and you had a pretty large chip stack.  You got into a big hand with a young lady at the other end of the table and the end result of the hand was her elimination.

She seemed pretty distraught.  I'm sure you didn't notice because you were too busy stacking chips.  I'm also sure you didn't notice that I got up from the table and followed her outside to console her.  I had never met her but just felt like she needed a bit of comfort at the time.  We got to talking and one thing led to another.  We have been a couple ever since that chance meeting and we are both deliriously happy."

He wanted to take a photo with me to show her and tell her about meeting me and our conversation.

As I said.  No moral to this story.  Just interesting.  You never know how your seemingly random actions can affect other people.  Who knew I was Cupid in disguise?

Being Honest With Yourself

Like a lot of other poker players I track my winnings and losses.  Personally, I do it with a spreadsheet and graph the results.  I'm sure there are multiple ways to track how you're doing, that's just the way I do it.

I've been having a rough poker year.  In fact, this year is (so far) the worst year of my poker career.  My results had gotten so bad that I had quit updating my spreadsheet.  I knew I was way behind but didn't really want to know just how far behind.  It was too depressing.

A month or so ago I stepped back and evaluated the situation and changed my game accordingly.  My results have improved quite a bit.

So.........I decided this morning to update my spreadsheet and graph and see how it looks.  In one word:  "Depressing".  The silver lining is that the last month or so looks a lot better than the overall picture.  I can at least take solace in the fact that the situation is improving.

I wasn't really lying to myself by not keeping my spreadsheet updated.  I knew I wasn't doing well, just didn't know exactly how bad it was.  I guess you could say I was shielding myself from the gory details.  Well the details have now seen the full light of day and they're ugly.

If there's a moral to all this it would be a reminder that the worst person you can lie to is yourself.  Worse than lying to your wife, your best friend, or even God.  Lying to yourself is the worst and it is particularly bad if a poker player is lying to himself.

My results have gotten better of late but I'm not lying to myself---my game could still use a lot of improvement and I'm working on it.

See you at the tables.